One class of tests examines the consistency of beliefs elicited in different ways. Or, they may find the constant fussing over details to be “mind-numbingly dull” (to use the phrase that Calvin, of Calvin and Hobbes, applied to archaeology) and then choose to get their science from places like Nova, Frontline, the New York Times, and Wired. H�tT]o�0}ϯ��$��gl�--������P�V�H��d�w�6�A2��+�>�~�s�]r�'��[email protected]��i�ʉ{K�.ʌ��pNI9['g�{F^ʄ�T77��N��|QM�w��r��~钫�[����Ǐ�K�����������\(�Ң��}I4ИC�1����I�C��4���vr���vL:���!2��Q�?M��{�$$fN�� Did they fail to listen, as well as to speak? Did they travel through noisy channels, and not reach their audiences? The deductive approach focusses on gathering facts based on a perspective that operates from a general to some specific supported deductions (Burney, 2008; Collis and Hussey, 2003). I did not think that this would work, my best friend showed me this website, and it does! Getting full value from behavioral science requires studying not only how individual principles express themselves in specific settings, but also how they act in consort (41). The Ocean Health Index (79, 80) uses natural and decision science to identify the impacts that various stakeholders value and then synthesize the evidence relevant to them. Or, it might require enough knowledge about the underlying science to understand why the experts make those estimates (8). The more that people know about a science (e.g., physics), the easier it will be to explain the facts that matter in specific decisions (e.g., energy policy). They cause lasting damage if they erode trust between scientists and the public. 4 0 obj Perhaps they exaggerate how well others could infer those probabilities from everything else that they said. World rights except United Kingdom & Commonwealth. _Ƚը-���w�4��OQ��l( Whether these probabilities were over- or underestimated seemed to depend on teens’ beliefs about the events, rather than on their ability to express themselves numerically (34). The scientific facts critical to one decision may be irrelevant to another. People adept at reading corporate balance sheets may need help with their own tax forms. Short and long-term psychological reactions to the new terrorism, Assessing adolescent decision-making competence, Risk and rationality in adolescent decision making: Implications for theory, practice, and public policy, Communicating about the risks of terrorism (or anything else), Automatic processing of fundamental information: The case of frequency of occurrence, Communicating Risks and Benefits: An Evidence-Based User’s Guide, Risk perception and communication unplugged: Twenty years of process, Parents’ vaccination comprehension and decisions, Common-sense models of illness: The example of hypertension, Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice, Accident probabilities and seat belt usage: A psychological perspective, Using time intervals between expected events to communicate risk magnitudes, Cloudy skies: Assessing public understanding of global warming, Improving communication of uncertainty in the reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Communicating the uncertainty of harms and benefits of medical interventions, An empirical analysis of the medical informed consent doctrine, A systematic review of information in decision aids, An integrated model of communication influence on beliefs, New media landscapes and the science information consumer, A two step flow of influence? This paper results from the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium of the National Academy of Sciences, “The Science of Science Communication,” held May 21–22, 2012, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, DC. The false consensus effect arises when people exaggerate how widely their attitudes are shared (31). ), about whose welfare matters (their own? information the new Internet culture can provide for us. The National Academy of Sciences’ Science and Entertainment Exchange answers and encourages media requests for subject matter expertise. Although often useful, relying on such automatic observation can lead people astray when an event is disproportionately visible (e.g., because of media reporting practices) and they cannot correct for the extent to which appearances are deceiving. Nonetheless, each is also inconclusive. A small fossil reptile related to dinosaurs and pterosaurs suggests a miniaturized origin for some of the largest animals to live on Earth. Did they lack clarity and comprehensibility, frustrating their audiences? Instead of asking about the probability of efficient transmission in 3 years, it asked for the time until the probability reached several values (10%, 50%, 90%). For example, in the context of medical decisions (6, 7, 11), such analyses ask when it is enough to describe a procedure’s typical effects and when decision makers need to know the distribution of outcomes (e.g., “most patients get mild relief; for some, though, it changes their lives”). This course is designed to provide an introduction to Information Science for … The materiality standard can be formalized in value-of-information analysis (7, 11, 12), asking how much knowing an item of information would affect recipients’ ability to choose wisely. Author contributions: B.F. wrote the paper. Information is poised to replace matter as the primary stuff of the universe, von Baeyer suggests; it will provide a new basic framework for describing and predicting reality in the twenty-first century. are they ceding future rights?). At other times, though, the science is so unintuitive that people have difficulty creating the needed mental models. their family’s? A task analysis suggests the following test: a communication is adequate if it (i) contains the information that recipients need, (ii) in places that they can access, and (iii) in a form that they can comprehend. The first choice principle (in Table 1) is that people consider the return on investing in decision-making processes (39). However, even the most effective communication cannot guarantee that people will agree about what those choices should be. Malpractice laws in about half of the United States require physicians to provide any information that is material to their patients’ decisions (60). Information is poised to replace matter as the primary stuff of the universe, von Baeyer suggests; it will provide a new basic framework for describing and predicting reality in the twenty-first century. 0000000611 00000 n The study of mental models has a long history in cognitive psychology, in research that views people as active, if imperfect, problem solvers (46⇓–48). It also allows diagnosing what went wrong when communications fail. The comprehensibility standard recognizes that not everyone will (or must) understand everything; someone must then decide whether most people have extracted enough meaning. When asked how likely the virus was to become an efficient human-to-human transmitter in the next 3 years, most public health experts saw a probability around 10%, with a minority seeing a much higher one. This standard compares the choices made by people who receive a message with those of fully informed individuals (6, 71). However, when people need more precise estimates of their cumulative risk, they cannot be expected to do the mental arithmetic, any more than they can be expected to project exponential processes, such as the proliferation of invasive species (55), or interdependent nonlinear ones, such as those involved in climate change (56). Communications are central to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Strategic Forecast Initiative and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather-Ready Nation program. Winterstein and Kimberlin (68) found that the system for distributing consumer medication information sheets puts something in the hands of most patients who pick up their own prescriptions. 0000002012 00000 n Knowing the gist of that science could not only increase trust in those claims, but also allow members of the public to follow future developments, see why experts disagree, and have a warranted feeling of self-efficacy, from learning—and being trusted to learn—about the topic (9, 10). 0000001485 00000 n lol it did not even take me 5 minutes at all! The latter include decision scientists who can identify the scientific results that an audience needs to know, from among all of the scientific results that it would be nice to know; …